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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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The Black Wwan
- Sales Rank: #150169 in Books
- Published on: 2006-04-17
- Number of items: 2
- Binding: Hardcover
Most helpful customer reviews
119 of 129 people found the following review helpful.
A bad book for all the wrong reasons.
By M. Strong
I really wish this were a good book, because the basic idea behind it is original, important and clever. That makes Taleb's careless handling of his topic all the more disturbing.
The rock-solid foundation of this book is Taleb's insight that the most important events in history, and presumably to come in the future, are essentially unpredictable; they can't be forecast using the information we have prior to their occurrence. That's a huge point and Taleb goes on to offer some compelling evidence that it is indeed true. He uses the analogy of a Turkey deciding that humans must have his best interests at heart because they show up every day of his life to feed him a good meal, he projects that - based on all of his evidence - this will continue. This works great until a couple of days before Thanksgiving. Suddenly his predictions have failed him catastrophically.
Great idea, and - I believe - true. But Taleb undercuts his own thought baby with shoddy writing, poor research and personal opinion masquerading as evidence.
The writing: A well-written book allows a reader to flow naturally from one paragraph to the next and from one idea to the next, even when the subject matter is complex. Taleb's writing is tough to follow and slow to get through. Beyond that, you really struggle to comprehend what he is trying to get across to you for huge portions of this book.
The research: When Taleb used examples to back his ideas that came from fields with which I was unfamiliar, I felt pretty good about them. However, whenever he used examples from areas where I have deeper knowledge, I noticed that his knowledge was lacking badly (being a trader comes to mind). This started to make me question all of his supporting evidence.
The opinion: Taleb leans heavily on the idea that most of what happens in the world is luck, even when we try desperately to ascribe some sort of tangible cause to it. At one point he uses the example of Mac operating software being far superior to that of Windows, but Windows being dominant in the market. He chalks it up entirely to luck! I'm sure he'd say I'm falling prey to a logical fallacy, but Apple and Steve Jobs had a huge head start on Microsoft, but refused to let anyone else run their operating system - so to run it, you had to buy a Mac. Microsoft let anyone run their operating system and consequently took the dominant share of the market.
This book is really a shame. The idea is just too good to be used this poorly. It made me sad to read this thing. Taleb the thinker deserved a far better writer than Taleb the author. What a waste.
You might still try reading this to understand Taleb's idea, because it's a huge insight, but watch all of his other content because it's riddled with holes.
167 of 189 people found the following review helpful.
Disappointing, Underwhelming
By B. Joseph
After reading "Fooled By Randomness", I eagerly looked forward to reading Taleb's latest book, only to be disappointed. He mentions both in the prologue and acknowledgments, "the book just wrote itself", and it shows. He could have fitted most of the 300 pages into 50 and gotten his points across. In any event, this book does not add anything more to "Fooled By Randomness" (194 pages) and is often rambling and incoherent. Perhaps if one read The Black Swan first, it may have been interesting but not if you read Taleb's previous excellent book.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
The Black Swan
By Tom T
My son recommended reading The Black Swan to me. I had no idea what it was about or I likely would not have read a "financial book". I am an artist and tend to avoid this type of reading.
Coincidentally, I had just had a negative experience with a financial adviser and found the timing for this book perfect. The Black Swan is an occurrence that has great impact and is unforeseen. It is often what determines the success or failure of the quality of your financial life. That pretty much describes anything in the area of finances that matter.
The book is interesting, but more importantly funny, and easy to read. It is not your typical "how to" financial book. Just the opposite, it is a why you should stay away from a financial adviser... book. I learned a great deal and really look at the world of finances and the world in general in a different and a more positive way. This is a great book and I highly recommend it.
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